The JSE all share index (Alsi) fell by 31% between April 1 2008 and March 31 2009, mainly in a straight line. Only one share from last year's winners - Aspen - was in positive territory during the year. It rose by 42,5% during the period, but most of that rise occurred during the second six months, when it was the subject of a corporate collaboration with international drug firm GSK.
Many of last year's winners underperformed the Alsi and some by a very wide margin. The worst performer was Sentula, formerly Scharrig Mining, which had a really dreadful year. It lost 83% of its value during the period and from its peak of about R25 in late 2007, it has lost far more.
The year started badly for Sentula with heavy rains in a number of its operations. But then there were also suggestions of share price manipulation. Eventually the company requested that its shares be suspended while a forensic audit was undertaken. The management team has done a great job in cleaning up the company, but it may well take years for the share price to recover to anything like its former elevated levels.
CMH is the only listed "standalone" motor car retailer. Its earnings reflect the precipitous decline in new vehicle sales during the past couple of years. Its share price fell by 56,5% during the period. With many observers only expecting new car sales to trough by year-end, the CMH share price could take some time to recover.
Yorkcor's 77,9% fall in its share price reflects a really horrible year for the company. In many ways, it faced a "perfect storm" in the form of a large drop in demand for residential housing and devastating forest fires.
The two retail stocks in last year's winners - Massmart and Woolies - both outperformed the Alsi. Massmart was virtually unchanged for the year, while Woolies' share price fell by 7,2%. Both stocks are regarded as being relatively defensive by investors, which probably explains why their respective share prices didn't fall as much as the Alsi. Massmart turned in a very reasonable performance, even though it was hindered by a lacklustre performance from its Builders Warehouse chain. Woolies, on the other hand, lost market share in its food operation for the first time in many years and was forced to cut prices on a significant number of lines to remain competitive.
Highveld Steel & Vanadium's share price slumped by 57,5% during the year, the result of depressed global demand for steel products and significantly lower steel prices.
Grindrod has been a regular inclusion in the Top 20 of Top Companies and has won on at least two occasions. But its share price fell by 46,5% last year. Its fortunes are intimately linked to world trade and as that trade fell dramatically last year in the wake of the credit crunch, one might have reasonably expected a decline in Grindrod's earnings. In fact, the company had a record year, even though shipping volumes declined in the last quarter of the year.
The Baltic dry index is a good barometer of seaborne trade. That index fell by about 90% last year. And though it has bounced back this year, it is still nowhere near its peak.
Though Grindrod expects earnings to fall short of those achieved in 2008, it still expects a reasonable return on shareholders' funds in 2009.