It seemed a long way - and even longer now - from 2005, when we noted that "business confidence is strong and there is unqualified admiration for the way fiscal and monetary policy has been handled by government. Interest rates and inflation are at their lowest for decades, and much has been made of a claimed structural change in the economy, that we are now beyond the familiar boom-and-bust cycle that formed the context for an entire business generation during the last three decades of the 20th century".

It was soon confirmed, in case anyone was still under any illusions, that cycles have not gone away. A year ago there was considerable domestic pessimism in SA, even before the shock waves of the credit crisis in the US were really radiating into other economies. We'd had the electricity crisis in late January and early February, followed by the exposure of Eskom's severe weaknesses in management. Food and oil prices were rising, and some were predicting that oil would hit US$200/barrel by the end of the year. There was uncertainty over what would happen as a result of Jacob Zuma's election as ANC president and of the effective relegation of Thabo Mbeki to lame-duck status.

The irony is that electricity is not a problem in the short term because the recession in mining and manufacturing has reduced demand. Oil dropped to well below $50/barrel and there is now a greater sense of political stability in that the "two centres of power" have been consolidated. There is uncertainty about whether there will be a lurch to the Left, as a result of Cosatu and the SACP flexing their muscles, but at least the elections have produced some clarity.

Interest rates have risen and then come down faster than expected. Our problem now is that fingers have been burnt and confidence is low. The banks are coming under pressure to lend, while they understandably are far more cautious than they were a couple of years ago. There was a period when gaining market share seemed to be more important to the banks than their capital adequacy ratios, which were seldom mentioned and almost taken for granted.

It was Mark Twain who pointed out that a bank is something that lends you money when you can prove you don't need it (because you can offer surety of some kind). If the banks had forgotten this wry truth, in an era of offering 100% (or more) loans to prospective home buyers, they have certainly remembered it now.

Their unique triple role in the economy - lenders of the capital without which the economy cannot function, guarantors of depositors' money and vehicles for investors looking for good returns - has been restored to top of mind. There was a time when it seemed they were most concerned (though SA banks cannot be accused of being reckless) with meeting the needs of investors, who should in fact be third in line - for if banks can't lend money or guarantee deposits, they are worth nothing to investors.

Despite all this, our big banks are stable and still profitable. There is irritation at their reluctance to lend, however justified this might be, but there is no question about their soundness.

The Economist asked recently (May 23 2009) which global banks deserve the most plaudits, after a horrendous year in which many went out of business or were taken over. SA's big four were not mentioned, but they could easily have been. This means they are especially well placed to take advantage of the upswing when it happens - and it will, hard as it may seem now to imagine it.

Globally, said The Economist, "the banking industry is gradually stabilising. Money markets are steadily calming. Those banks that emerge from this crisis with reputations and franchises strengthened will find it increasingly easy to raise funds, win clients, attract employees and buy assets".

Though it's true that the global crisis has spooked everyone and its effects will linger for years, it is also true that the market has been doing its work - and the survivors in all sectors will be that much fitter to compete. Even though this annual survey of SA's top companies is more about the past than the future, it gives more than a clue as to which companies are equipped to succeed.