Like celestial bodies attracted by the pull of the sun, new companies enter the "solar system" of Top Performers. Some manage to stay for a while but the majority get spun back out, destined to plumb the far reaches of the Top Companies universe until their share price growth brings them back in again.
This year's Top Performers was no exception, with only four of last year's top 10 remaining. Afgold was the worst casualty, spinning from 6th spot last year to number 82 this year. Brimstone went from 9 to 35, while Edcon, last year's number 10, was delisted in May last year and no longer qualifies for inclusion in Top Companies.
Simmer & Jack just failed to make the top 10, going from 8 to 11, while Distribution & Warehousing Network (Dawn) fell from 2 to 15. Petra Mining (Petmin) went from 3 to 20.
The four that remained from last year's top 10 are Capitec (from 1 to 8), Pinnacle (7 to 2), HCI (4 to 9) and Sentula (formerly Scharrig Mining) from 5 to 4.
But top honours go to AltX-listed African Dawn, which zoomed in from number 28 last year. Its five-year IRR more than doubled from 70,35 to 144,13. And while the company's earnings growth record has been extremely impressive, this isn't the only reason for it occupying top spot. In a previous life, African Dawn was known as ABC Cash Plus, which listed on the Venture Capital Market of the JSE in 1999. This was effectively a microlender and had a chequered history. It migrated to AltX in 2004 and changed its name to African Dawn shortly thereafter. The nature of the company also changed, from microlender to a niche finance, financial services and property services provider, focusing on the lower end of the consumer market. This might sound like semantics but in fact there has been quite a profound change in the way the company operates and this had the desired effect of improving profitability radically.
African Dawn's share price performance since its reincarnation in 2004 has been nothing short of stellar. At that time, the share price was languishing below 10c. Today, the share is trading at around 500c.
African Dawn has five operational divisions - Short-Term Secured Finance, Home Improvement Finance, Financial Literacy Education, Cellphone Banking Solutions and Property Sales. Since listing on AltX it has been one of the best performers with earnings growth above 120%/year.
Though a number of companies play in this space, African Dawn is one of the most prominent in the affordable housing market. And unlike many of its competitors, it doesn't just lend money - it helps in uplifting historically disadvantaged individuals (HDIs) and communities by raising financial awareness within these individuals and communities.
After having fallen back from 3rd to 7th spot last year, Pinnacle has zoomed right back up the rankings into 2nd position. This is quite unusual as most companies make their way out of the top 10 position after falling in one year. It's a solid little business, with its main claim to fame being the manufacture and distribution of the Proline range of personal computers.
Conduit Capital came roaring in from position 98 last year to number 3 this year. It's a real anomaly. Like African Dawn, its high five-year IRR is mainly low base related. But unlike African Dawn, it doesn't have a profit track record. Conduit Capital used to be known as IMR Investments and before that, the Appleton Group. Listed in the financial services sector of the JSE, it is an investment company that holds listed and unlisted equities and cash resources.
Sentula is probably the closest thing to a "royal" company in Top Performers. It has regularly been in the top 10 for a number of years and has a great earnings track record. It is a mining supplies company as well as a junior coal miner. At some point, in the not too distant future, it's likely that its coal mining interests will be spun off to shareholders, which should help to reassure its clients that it's not in competition with them.
The Sentula share price has fallen quite sharply in 2008, which is incongruous given the relatively exciting space in which it operates. This appears to be due to some operational difficulties at the start of the year coupled with a significant reduction in the shareholding by mining magnate Sam Jonah.
Basil Read is an old established construction company that's on the comeback trail. It doesn't get nearly as much attention as its larger peers in the construction sector, like Murray & Roberts and Aveng. Nevertheless, it's chipping away at its core business and winning some nice contracts. It was making losses five or six years ago and so a base effect comes into play as well.
Digicor's business is fleet management using vehicle tracking systems. Its earnings growth in the past three years has been very strong and the share price has mirrored that growth. But like quite a few other top 10 companies, it has had the benefit of an exceptionally low share price base five years ago, which has helped enormously in boosting its five-year IRR.
Howden Africa Holdings might seem like a fairly boring company at first glance, being involved in fans, heat exchangers and environmental control. But the industries it supplies are experiencing some of their fastest growth ever, thanks to the infrastructural building boom. It supplies the world's largest range of fans, blowers, compressors and rotary regenerative heat exchangers for most industrial applications in Africa, ranging from building ventilation to boiler draught. Major industries supplied include power generation, petrochemical, mining, agriculture, construction, refrigeration, water treatment, incineration and general industry.
Capitec, last year's Top Performer, almost fell out of the top 10 this year. Its share price has plummeted by almost 40% since late 2007, though this appears to be entirely due to negative sentiment towards the banking industry generally, rather than any intrinsic problems with the company.
The reason for HCI's big fall from 4 to 9 is that its five-year IRR simply ran out of momentum. It doesn't as yet have a five-year earnings growth track record, due to the fact that it was still making losses five years ago. But earnings growth from this miniconglomerate is still strong, even though the momentum has cooled.
It's instructive to look at the big inward moves to see if some interesting companies are about to make a grand entrance in the next year or two. There have been some profound upward moves among the resources stocks like ARM (199 to 84), AngloPlat (198 to 97) BHP Billiton (189 to 79), Sasol (203 to 100), Exxaro (157 to 37), Northam (131 to 63), Assore (131 to 65), Implats (175 to 69) and Anglo American (211 to 127). Provided the commodity supercycle still has legs, the likelihood is that all of these resources stocks' share prices will go even higher.
Telkom only established a five-year track record this year, having listed in 2003. It's made a first-time appearance at position 72.
The retailers largely went backward this year, with furniture retailer JD Group plummeting from 92 to 182. This isn't surprising, given the dismal outlook for consumer spending. What does appear incongruous, however, are the plunges of Cashbuild and Iliad, home improvement retailers. These companies have different drivers to most retailers and the outlook for home improvement remains strong, even though house prices are relatively stagnant. Both have strong, resourceful leaders in Pat Goldrick and Ralph Patmore respectively. And they will be back.
The one notable exception to the downwards track among retailers has been Shoprite, which moved up from 122 to 58. It was buoyed in 2007 by the possibility of a private equity buyout deal. And in 2008, strong earnings growth has helped drive it markedly higher.
Some shares to look out for next year and beyond include Datatec (213 to 59), Zaptronix (238 to 67), Trematon (184 to 51), Peregrine (105 to 54) and Foneworx (141 to 60).
Among the large capitalisation stocks, both MTN (77 to 38) and Sasol could move up the rankings rapidly. MTN is currently the subject of intense corporate activity and a merger with a large foreign telecom player could well materialise. That, coupled with its intrinsically high earnings growth, makes the top 10 a real possibility over the next couple of years.
Sasol is helped by a rising oil price and a weak rand. Both are likely to persist, so Sasol's earnings growth should continue to be strong.