TABLE: Top Five Transport & Automobile Parts
SECTORS - TRANSPORT
Faith is being tested


The effects of a fragile economic environment are starting to bite


A week - as former British prime minister Harold Wilson once observed - is a long time in politics. A year, Imperial Holdings CEO Hubert Brody might suggest, is a lifetime in business.

Twelve months ago, Bill Lynch was still in the saddle at Imperial, the company he turned from a Johannesburg car dealership into an SA-based transport and logistics multinational. Though Lynch's ill-health had precipitated the search for a successor, there was - in public, at least - little hint of the revolution to come.

Since Brody took over in July 2007, Imperial has announced its departure from aviation and commercial trucks, spun off its successful leasing and capital equipment division and listed it separately as Eqstra, and put its listed Tourvest tourism company up for sale.

While all this was going on, the share price plummeted and R20bn was wiped off the group's market capitalisation in little over a year. By May, the share price had dropped 51% in 12 months.

When he took charge, Brody said: "It's time to reflect on where we are and where we want to be." Though many analysts accept Imperial needed to refocus after years of growth and acquisitions, the rate of change has unsettled the market and it will take time for confidence to return.

Anyone involved in the passenger-vehicle retail sector has had a particularly miserable time of it. A 12,5% fall in new vehicle sales, disruption caused by the introduction of the National Credit Act, and a painful slide in the resale value of used vehicles, have brought fear and loathing to managers and shareholders alike. On the credit side, SA's continued infrastructural development growth, and the international commodities boom, have helped offset some of these problems.

Grindrod, the seafreight and logistics group, has benefited from being less exposed to the SA economy than most transport companies. In early May, the share was trading at just under R25, a 27,6% improvement on a year earlier and not far from its R27,40 peak. The group earns 86% of its revenue from shipping. It is also a growing force in the ports business - it is the biggest shareholder in Maputo harbour, and is eyeing other African ports for future investment.

An aggressive expansion strategy, underpinned by long-term shipping contracts, should secure Grindrod's continued growth for the foreseeable future. However, those who see no obstacles to long-term development should look no further than Imperial, which also diversified rapidly, to see what can happen to an apparently unstoppable force.

Trencor also enjoyed a maritime bonanza in 2007. Following a fall in trading profit in 2006 - after 34% and 31% rises in the two previous years - the group bounced back with a 23% boost to R675m.

Back on dry land, Cargo Carriers had a topsy-turvy 2007. The collapse of the Zimbabwe economy and lack of foreign exchange forced the company to take a R5,1m impairment charge on its subsidiary there. In SA, rising finance and depreciation costs hurt the bottom line.

Super Group, in its interim results to December 31 2007, also complained of SA's fragile economic environment, specifically rising interest rates, unreliable electricity supply and lower consumer spending.


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