Pat Goldrick . . . . Running a marathon at a sprinter's pace


TABLE: Share price movement
INVESTMENT - TOP PERFORMERS
Shuffle at the top


Petmin holds its own, claiming the top spot with its threefold rise over the past year and sixfold over the past three years


Only four of last year's top 10 performers stayed there this year - Mittal, Schamin, Grindrod and KG Media. But the biggest fall from grace was by Mvelaphanda (Mvela), which plummeted from number two last year to 172 this year. Mvela's five-year IRR went from 96% to 20%. It was an arithmetical certainty that it would fall heavily, though perhaps not as far as it did. Its rise in the past few years was predicated on its exponential rise following its reverse listing into East Daggafontein. Unless it continued to record spectacular share price appreciation, it was always going to come back sharply.

Top performer overall was Petra Mining (Petmin), with a five-year IRR of 134%, up from last year's 54%. It's risen sixfold in three years and threefold in the past year, which is the main reason it's ranked number one. Though not a micro-cap stock, it's still small at a market capitalisation of R460m. Petmin is an investment holding company whose main operations are mining and marketing metallurgical and flat-glass grades of silica. Its mining operations are based in Mpumalanga.

The number two performer is Cashbuild. Like Petmin, it rocketed up the rankings from virtually nowhere last year. But unlike Petmin, Cashbuild is an established company with a proven long-term track record. Cashbuild is the largest supplier of home improvement and building materials in SA and has been around since the late 1970s. This sector is flavour of the month, even though the housing boom has lost some of its momentum.

It's had a few hiccups in its history, but these have generally been short-lived. It was one of the first companies in SA to institute a genuine participative management system. Its share price has risen virtually exponentially in the past three years but has taken a breather in recent times on the back of a lull in earnings growth. Its cost base has risen sharply in the past year, as the company has initiated a new strategy. This is likely to be of a temporary nature, but the share price may remain in the doldrums for the rest of this year. However it shouldn't take too long before recovering. "We're running a marathon at a sprinter's pace," says Cashbuild CEO Pat Goldrick.

A number of other home improvement/DIY companies have also done extremely well, including Dawn and Iliad.

Building & construction companies Basil Read and WBHO came roaring up the ranks, as their share price movements reflect the anticipated boom in construction ahead of the 2010 soccer World Cup. Concor shot up from 158 to 61, with a five-year IRR of 49%. But Murray & Roberts fell from 56 to 74.

Pinnacle went from 83 to three and has to be angling for top spot next year. Its five-year IRR zoomed from 30% to 100% and in terms of earnings growth, Pinnacle was the best performing IT stock last year. It manufactures and distributes the Proline range of personal computers, among many others.

Quick-service restaurants did well, notably Kingco, which soared from 242 to seven. Famous Brands, the benchmark company in the fast-food/quick-service restaurant industry, also did well, moving from 46 to 21

Most of the retailers, with a few notable exceptions, are playing catch-up. Edcon is at 10, screaming in from 63 last year, with a five-year IRR of 83%. This company has the largest market capitalisation in the retail sector and is the one most investors identify with regarding retail share performance over the past three years. It rode the wave of the combined effects of tax cuts and interest rate reductions that began in 2003. But its share price has gone nowhere in the past year, as investors wait on the sidelines to see what Edcon is capable of producing in terms of earnings growth under "normal" economic conditions.

Both Foschini and Mr Price soared up the rankings - Foschini from 118 to 25 and Mr Price from 148 to 49. Though their five-year IRRs weren't as good as Edcon's, they were still impressive at 66% and 55% respectively.

Though not strictly speaking a retailer, LA Group moved from position 189 to 39.

Massmart makes a first appearance at 56, with a five-year IRR of 50%. It was separately listed only in 2001, having previously been an unlisted subsidiary of the Wooltru Group.

Ellerine, the furniture retailer, moved from 137 to 100 with a five-year IRR of 35%. Watch out for a huge improvement in its IRR next year on the back of spectacular interim results. Fellow traveller in the furniture sector JD Group managed a marginal improvement, from 187 to 176. Blue-chip clothing retailer Truworths moved from 81 to 62, while Woolies moved up from 37 to 28.

Food and drug retailers Pick 'n Pay and Shoprite went backwards last year, Pick 'n Pay dropping from 123 to 163 and Shoprite from 126 to 130. Pick 'n Pay's five-year IRR of 22% is very much in line with its long-term average earnings growth.

PSG shot up from 192 to 79. This share was one of the darlings of the JSE in the 1990s at the height of the new listings boom, but rapidly lost its appeal in the wake of the collapse of most of the secondary banking operations. That was a pity, as Jannie Mouton's operation is a well-diversified financial services business that's starting to show great promise again. Further upward momentum can be expected.

Some other small banks also did well. African Bank, or Abil as it's now known, rose from 167 to 90. Sasfin rose from 96 to 64 and Brait from 226 to 168. Listed stockbroker BJM has been enjoying the benefits of an equity bull market and moved up nicely from 263 to 193. Insurance and financial services company Alexander Forbes' dismal run continued, falling from 219 to 237.

The big four banking groups all went backwards - Standard Bank from 116 to 147, FirstRand 145 to 155, Nedbank 231 to 239 and Absa 79 to 107. Investec bucked the trend, going from 196 to 181.

The food companies did surprisingly well, considering the defensive nature of their products. The star performer was Crookes Brothers, going from 138 to 75. Its much larger peer in the sugar business, Illovo, had a solid rise, going from 144 to 120 on the back of a 31% five-year IRR. That position is highly likely to improve significantly next year, as Illovo's share price has risen sharply in the past six months on the back of its greatly improved earnings, the rise in the world sugar price and the deal with the UK's Associated British Foods.

Tiger Brands, which has a well-diversified portfolio of food and pharmaceutical brands, moved up from 141 to 121. But Tongaat went backwards, from 131 to 175.

Most of the leisure companies went backwards. There isn't great earnings growth coming out of the gaming companies - they're cash cows unless they can find new growth prospects offshore. Sun International went from 104 to 135 and Gold Reef from 13 to 45. The third big gaming company, Peermont, was listed only in 2004 and doesn't have a five-year track record for ranking purposes.

The Don Group was by far the best performer in the sector, going from 194 to 84. City Lodge fell back, from 38 to 55.

Media companies had a great year and the top performer in the sector, Kagiso Media, is at number four overall. Naspers shot up from relative obscurity at number 229 to 101, MTN from 214 to 139, AME from 218 to 111 and Primedia from 188 to 108. Johncom turned around big time as far as its IRR was concerned, going from 14% to 26% and in the process climbing up the rankings from 248 to 146.

Discovery went backwards, even though its compound annual growth rate in earnings per share has been about 23% and pretax profit growth is about 30%.

Astral, Spar and Telkom have yet to get five-year track records and thus don't appear in these rankings.


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