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27 June 2003 Xerox. The OriginalXerox. The Original

Diamond demand

Scramble on to meet demand



By Brendan Ryan

Fears of a swamped market were unfounded

Put it down to whatever you like - female vanity, male ego, emotional advertising hype - but the outlook for the diamond business is remarkably good.

That's surprising, given that the overwhelming concern in the diamond industry just a few years ago was that it would be swamped by oversupply.

The doomsday scenario was that De Beers, which at that time largely controlled the market in rough diamonds through a cartel known as the Central Selling Organisation, would lose control, resulting in a drastic loss of value when diamond prices plunged.

That was then. De Beers has reduced the size of its diamond "stockpile" from above US$5bn to around $2,3bn and says it no longer wants to control the diamond business. Instead it is encouraging more competition.

The result, says competitor BHP Billiton, which has expansion ambitions in the diamond sector, is that the future looks bright in a business that is one of the most profitable of any mining sector.

Marcus Randolph, president of BHP Billiton's diamonds and speciality products division, says demand for diamonds is growing at 2%-3% annually as branding and promotion stimulate it and new markets like China and India are developed.

He says the current major producers are running at full capacity and new mines have to be discovered to meet demand. He intends that BHP Billiton should make one or more of those new discoveries.

So does De Beers, which is pouring money into the global diamond search. The company spent $79m on exploration in 2002 and plans to increase this by 11% this year.

De Beers is a little more cautious in its outlook for the diamond business than BHP Billiton. De Beers chairman Nicky Oppenheimer says 2003 is "a challenging year for the diamond industry in view of continued geopolitical concerns and greater economic uncertainty".

Yet US diamond jewellery sales for Christmas 2001 were 1% up on the previous year while sales of other luxury products were 13% down. Oppenheimer attributes this to a "swing back to traditional values and a recognition of the role diamonds play as the ultimate gift of love".

Putting the continuing trend in a more down-to-earth manner, one analyst says many members of the US Army got engaged and bought diamond rings before marching off to war in Afghanistan and Iraq.

De Beers is cranking up production as fast as it can to meet demand; the Venetia mine in Limpopo province is being pushed to record levels.

Production from De Beers' SA mines is expected to rise by 2m carats to reach 12m carats during 2003. Another 2m extra carats are expected from Debswana, whose mines produce 28,4m carats annually.




OTHER MINING STORIES

  • Look to the top
  • Global view
  • Diamond demand
  • Mining legislation



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